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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 19 at the 48

Los Angeles Chargers 22 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:35) 16-J.Scott punts 31 yards to PIT 17, Center-47-J.Harris. 85-K.Williams MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LAC-53-D.Phillips at PIT 21.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.86 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model