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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 51

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:54) 16-J.Scott punts 45 yards to PIT 6, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-33-D.Leonard.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.09 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -0.88 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP