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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 6

Cleveland Browns 3 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(8:47) 25-A.Szmyt 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.61 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 6, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model