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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
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Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
Sunday 2025-11-16 · 16:25 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌧 Rain Spread -7.5 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

BAL
64.5%
CLE
35.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to BAL: Dillon Gabriel (CLE) -0.227 vs Lamar Jackson (BAL) +0.295 EPA/dropback
  • CLE offense: -0.186 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • CLE defense: -0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Wind 20 mph

Predicted Final Score

BAL 22
–
CLE 17
Projected margin: BAL by 5 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

BAL

Marlon Humphrey CB Out Finger
Justice Hill RB Out Toe
Rashod Bateman WR Out Ankle
Jay Higgins LB Out Knee
Mike Green LB Questionable Ankle

CLE

Alex Wright DE Out Quadricep
Maliek Collins DT Questionable Oblique

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 23
–
CLE 16

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:59 FG BAL (4:59) 33-T.Loop 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 3 – CLE 0
  • Q1 00:04 FG CLE (:04) 25-A.Szmyt 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. BAL 3 – CLE 3
  • Q2 08:47 FG CLE (8:47) 25-A.Szmyt 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. BAL 3 – CLE 6
  • Q2 07:53 TD CLE (7:53) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 34-K.Mitchell INTERCEPTED by 30-D.Bush at BAL 23. 30-D.Bush for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 3 – CLE 12
  • Q2 04:22 TD BAL (4:22) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 9 – CLE 13
  • Q2 01:02 FG CLE (1:02) 25-A.Szmyt 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. BAL 10 – CLE 16
  • Q4 14:09 FG BAL (14:09) 33-T.Loop 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 13 – CLE 16
  • Q4 05:03 FG BAL (5:03) 33-T.Loop 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 16 – CLE 16
  • Q4 02:39 TD BAL (2:39) Direct snap to 89-M.Andrews. 89-M.Andrews right end for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 22 – CLE 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:47) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 63 yards to BAL 2, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 83-L.Wester to BAL 21 for 19 yards (31-D.McMillon; 41-C.Edmonds).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (4:59) 33-T.Loop 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%

    (:04) 25-A.Szmyt 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 21%

    (12:51) 11-J.Stout punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 11 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (10:26) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to BAL 13, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 83-L.Wester MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CLE-9-G.Delpit at BAL 6.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (8:47) 25-A.Szmyt 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 5 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 78%

    (1:02) 25-A.Szmyt 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (:35) 11-J.Stout punts 52 yards to CLE 6, Center-46-N.Moore. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 11 for 5 yards (39-K.Jackson).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 5 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (12:54) 11-J.Stout punts 48 yards to CLE 12, Center-46-N.Moore. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 25 for 13 yards (54-C.Martin).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 14 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 38%

    (5:13) 11-J.Stout punts 26 yards to CLE 17, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 20 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (1:11) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 50 yards to BAL 25, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 83-L.Wester to BAL 32 for 7 yards (50-R.Sunahara).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (14:09) 33-T.Loop 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 46%

    (11:01) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback. Cleveland challenged the touchback ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 82%

    (5:03) 33-T.Loop 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 35 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 61%

    (2:39) Direct snap to 89-M.Andrews. 89-M.Andrews right end for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 25 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 83%

    (1:02) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass incomplete short right to 85-D.Njoku (0-R.Smith) [41-D.Jones].