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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 65

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(12:47) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 63 yards to BAL 2, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 83-L.Wester to BAL 21 for 19 yards (31-D.McMillon; 41-C.Edmonds).

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.63 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 65, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 23, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model