4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 58

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Cleveland Browns 16

What Actually Happened

(:35) 11-J.Stout punts 52 yards to CLE 6, Center-46-N.Moore. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 11 for 5 yards (39-K.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.41 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 58, worth -2.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 18, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model