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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 20 at the 75

Cleveland Browns 16 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 50 yards to BAL 25, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 83-L.Wester to BAL 32 for 7 yards (50-R.Sunahara).

The Three Options

GO -2.66 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.34 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 75, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 32, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model