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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 35

Baltimore Ravens 16 – Cleveland Browns 16

What Actually Happened

(2:39) Direct snap to 89-M.Andrews. 89-M.Andrews right end for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.10 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 35, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +0.50 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 45, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model