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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 7

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(4:59) 33-T.Loop 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.24 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 7, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP