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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 12

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(:04) 25-A.Szmyt 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.67 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 12, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 22, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model