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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 67

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(13:27) 17-R.Wright punts 41 yards to CHI 26, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.19 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 67, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 25, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model