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Chicago Bears

HC Ben Johnson
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
Sunday 2025-11-16 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

CHI
67.0%
MIN
33.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • J.J. McCarthy (MIN): -0.358 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CHI offense: +0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • MIN offense: -0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • CHI defense: +0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CHI 24
–
MIN 18
Projected margin: CHI by 6 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

CHI

T.J. Edwards LB Out Hand
Jahdae Walker WR Out Concussion
Jaylon Johnson CB Questionable Groin
Jaquan Brisker S Questionable Back

MIN

Ryan Kelly C Out Concussion
Jonathan Greenard LB Out Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 19
–
MIN 17

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:13 FG MIN (2:13) 16-W.Reichard 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. CHI 0 – MIN 3
  • Q2 04:57 TD CHI (4:57) 25-K.Monangai left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – MIN 3
  • Q2 02:04 FG CHI (2:04) 8-C.Santos 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CHI 10 – MIN 3
  • Q3 10:36 FG CHI (10:36) 8-C.Santos 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CHI 13 – MIN 3
  • Q3 02:15 FG CHI (2:15) 8-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CHI 16 – MIN 3
  • Q4 12:38 TD MIN (12:38) 27-J.Mason right tackle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 16 – MIN 9
  • Q4 00:56 TD MIN (:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short left to 3-J.Addison for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 16 – MIN 16
  • Q4 00:04 FG CHI (:04) 8-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CHI 19 – MIN 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 3 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 32%

    (10:26) 17-R.Wright punts 42 yards to CHI 10, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 9 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (9:30) 19-T.Taylor punts 53 yards to MIN 36, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 7 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:00) 17-R.Wright punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (6:34) 19-T.Taylor punts 57 yards to MIN 22, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-M.Price to MIN 40 for 18 yards (92-D.Hardy; 46-S.Daly).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 6 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 96%

    (2:13) 16-W.Reichard 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (14:56) 19-T.Taylor punts 45 yards to MIN 12, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 4-M.Price. PENALTY on CHI-39-J.Blackwell, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 12.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 4 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (13:27) 17-R.Wright punts 41 yards to CHI 26, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 5 at the 20
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 93%

    (2:04) 8-C.Santos 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74%

    (:21) 19-T.Taylor punts 50 yards to MIN 21, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-M.Price to MIN 39 for 18 yards (48-D.Jackson; 21-T.Homer).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 7 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 71%

    (10:36) 8-C.Santos 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:28) 17-R.Wright punts 52 yards to CHI 15, Center-42-A.DePaola. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 20 for 5 yards (13-T.Felton; 37-T.Thomas).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 3 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 96%

    (2:15) 8-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 2 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (1:14) 17-R.Wright punts 56 yards to CHI 15, Center-42-A.DePaola. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at CHI 21 for 6 yards (37-T.Thomas).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 27
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 86%

    (8:13) 8-C.Santos 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:25) 17-R.Wright punts 45 yards to CHI 18, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 10 at the 48 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 42%

    (3:21) 19-T.Taylor punts 33 yards to MIN 15, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 4-M.Price.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:59) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short right to 3-J.Addison to 50 for 5 yards (24-N.McCloud) [49-T.Edmunds].

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 31 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 80%

    (:04) 8-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.