4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 20

Chicago Bears 7 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(2:04) 8-C.Santos 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.89 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 20, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP