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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 63

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(7:25) 17-R.Wright punts 45 yards to CHI 18, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.07 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 63, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 21, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model