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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 48

Chicago Bears 16 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(3:21) 19-T.Taylor punts 33 yards to MIN 15, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 4-M.Price.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.85 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 48, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.39 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model