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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 31

Chicago Bears 16 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(:04) 8-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +1.13 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 31, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 41, worth -0.17 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model