Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 79

Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

(6:34) 19-T.Taylor punts 57 yards to MIN 22, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-M.Price to MIN 40 for 18 yards (92-D.Hardy; 46-S.Daly).

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.86 EP
60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 79, worth -4.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model