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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 57

Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 19-T.Taylor punts 45 yards to MIN 12, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 4-M.Price. PENALTY on CHI-39-J.Blackwell, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 12.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.39 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 57, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP