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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 68

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 5-B.Anger punts 44 yards to LV 24, Center-44-T.Sieg. 1-T.Tucker to LV 31 for 7 yards (89-B.Spann-Ford; 38-A.Clark).

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.64 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 68, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 26, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP