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DAL Away

Dallas Cowboys

HC Brian Schottenheimer
@
LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Pete Carroll
Monday 2025-11-17 · 20:15 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

DAL
67.5%
LV
32.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.145 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • LV offense: -0.211 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • DAL defense: +0.188 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Geno Smith (LV): -0.064 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LV defense: +0.032 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • DAL on 3 more days rest than LV

Predicted Final Score

DAL 27
–
LV 21
Projected margin: DAL by 6 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

DAL

Solomon Thomas DT Out Calf
Malik Hooker S Questionable Toe
Perrion Winfrey DT Questionable Back
Ajani Cornelius T Questionable Knee
Alijah Clark S Questionable Ribs

LV

Aidan O'Connell QB Out Wrist

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 33
–
LV 16

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:59 FG LV (7:59) 8-D.Carlson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. DAL 0 – LV 3
  • Q1 05:41 FG DAL (5:41) 17-B.Aubrey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 3 – LV 3
  • Q1 02:06 FG LV (2:06) 8-D.Carlson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. DAL 3 – LV 6
  • Q2 14:55 TD DAL (14:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 9 – LV 6
  • Q2 05:19 TD DAL (5:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 87-J.Ferguson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 16 – LV 6
  • Q2 01:20 TD DAL (1:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DAL-3-G.Pickens, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. DAL 23 – LV 6
  • Q2 00:04 FG LV (:04) 8-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. DAL 24 – LV 9
  • Q3 06:22 TD DAL (6:22) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-R.Flournoy for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 30 – LV 9
  • Q4 13:27 TD LV (13:27) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 1-T.Tucker for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 31 – LV 15
  • Q4 11:43 SAF DAL (11:43) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (41-D.Ezeiruaku, 26-D.Bland). DAL 33 – LV 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 4 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (13:33) 5-B.Anger punts 44 yards to LV 24, Center-44-T.Sieg. 1-T.Tucker to LV 31 for 7 yards (89-B.Spann-Ford; 38-A.Clark).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 6 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 44%

    (10:36) 6-A.Cole punts 43 yards to DAL 4, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by LV-27-T.McCollum.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 12 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

    (7:59) 8-D.Carlson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 3 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 79%

    (5:41) 17-B.Aubrey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 20 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 86%

    (2:06) 8-D.Carlson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 98%

    (5:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 87-J.Ferguson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 5 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 93%

    (:04) 8-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 6 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:35) 6-A.Cole punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 30%

    (4:04) 2-A.Jeanty right tackle to LV 49 for 2 yards (92-Q.Williams; 35-M.Liufau).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 96%

    (14:14) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith scrambles left guard to DAL 6 for 7 yards (27-R.Steward).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 7 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:56) 5-B.Anger punts 49 yards to LV 5, Center-44-T.Sieg. 1-T.Tucker to LV 2 for -3 yards (38-A.Clark; 35-M.Liufau).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 4 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 98%

    (3:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 88-C.Lamb.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 86 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (2:36) 7-G.Smith sacked at LV 6 for -8 yards (97-O.Odighizuwa).