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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 20

Las Vegas Raiders 6 – Dallas Cowboys 24

What Actually Happened

(:04) 8-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +2.77 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 20, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30, worth -0.05 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model