Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 64

Las Vegas Raiders 9 – Dallas Cowboys 24

(13:35) 6-A.Cole punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.50 EP
58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 64, worth -3.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model