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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 53

Las Vegas Raiders 9 – Dallas Cowboys 31

What Actually Happened

(4:04) 2-A.Jeanty right tackle to LV 49 for 2 yards (92-Q.Williams; 35-M.Liufau).

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.76 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 53, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.36 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 15, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model