Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q4
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 1 at the 4
Dallas Cowboys 33 – Las Vegas Raiders 16
What Actually Happened
(3:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 88-C.Lamb.
The Three Options
GO
+3.82 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.77 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 4, worth -0.33 EP
KICK
+1.79 EP
- 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT
-0.57 EP
- Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
