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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 86

Las Vegas Raiders 16 – Dallas Cowboys 33

What Actually Happened

(2:36) 7-G.Smith sacked at LV 6 for -8 yards (97-O.Odighizuwa).

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.48 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 86, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 44, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model