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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 52

Detroit Lions 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(13:07) (No Huddle) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 0-J.Gibbs up the middle to DET 48 for no gain (97-M.Ojomo).

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.57 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 52, worth -3.03 EP
KICK -2.10 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 15, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model