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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Sunday 2025-11-16 · 20:20 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 💨 Windy Spread 2.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

DET
52.2%
PHI
47.8%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.171 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • PHI offense: +0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • QB edge to DET: Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.169 vs Jared Goff (DET) +0.244 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

DET 24
–
PHI 22
Projected margin: DET by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

DET

Marcus Davenport DE Out Shoulder
D.J. Reed CB Out Hamstring
Malcolm Rodriguez LB Out Knee
Kerby Joseph S Out Knee
Joshua Paschal DE Out Back
Sam LaPorta TE Out Back
Terrion Arnold CB Out Concussion
Miles Frazier G Out Knee
Taylor Decker T Questionable Shoulder
Amik Robertson CB Questionable Hamstring
Brock Wright TE Questionable Ankle
Penei Sewell T Questionable Ankle
Jacob Saylors RB Questionable Back
Sione Vaki RB Questionable Ankle
Isaac TeSlaa WR Questionable Oblique

PHI

Willie Lampkin C Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 9
–
PHI 16

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:47 FG PHI (9:47) 4-J.Elliott 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann. DET 0 – PHI 3
  • Q2 06:06 FG PHI (6:06) 4-J.Elliott 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann. DET 0 – PHI 6
  • Q2 05:12 TD DET (5:12) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 1-J.Williams for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DET-1-J.Williams, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. DET 6 – PHI 6
  • Q2 00:17 TD PHI (:17) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – PHI 12
  • Q4 10:20 FG PHI (10:20) 4-J.Elliott 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann. DET 6 – PHI 16
  • Q4 02:03 FG DET (2:03) 39-J.Bates 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 9 – PHI 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 14 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:28) 10-B.Mann punts 42 yards to DET 15, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 11-K.Raymond to DET 14 for -1 yards (57-C.Adomitis).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 8 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (9:47) 4-J.Elliott 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 16 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (8:31) 3-J.Fox punts 55 yards to PHI 30, Center-49-H.Hatten, downed by DET-49-H.Hatten. PENALTY on PHI-54-J.Trotter, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 30.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 2 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (5:46) 10-B.Mann punts 46 yards to DET 12, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 11-K.Raymond to DET 12 for no gain (7-K.Ringo).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 11 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 37%

    (1:25) 3-J.Fox punts 30 yards to PHI 15, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 87-X.Gipson.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 8 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (14:54) 10-B.Mann punts 44 yards to DET 39, Center-57-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73% p(FG) 21%

    (13:07) (No Huddle) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 0-J.Gibbs up the middle to DET 48 for no gain (97-M.Ojomo).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 10 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 29%

    (12:46) 10-B.Mann punts 28 yards to DET 20, Center-57-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond. PENALTY on PHI-54-J.Trotter, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at DET 20.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64%

    (11:22) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 15-G.Stuard. 15-G.Stuard up the middle to DET 43 for no gain (58-J.Hunt).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 16
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 94%

    (6:06) 4-J.Elliott 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 5 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 72%

    (12:19) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 1-J.Williams.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 10 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:37) 10-B.Mann punts 40 yards to DET 28, Center-57-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (5:14) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 14-A.St. Brown [50-J.Phillips].

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 15 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 21%

    (3:09) 10-B.Mann punts 41 yards to DET 11, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 11-K.Raymond to DET 15 for 4 yards (57-C.Adomitis; 7-K.Ringo).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 3 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 37%

    (1:18) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 14-A.St. Brown.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 30
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 76%

    (10:20) 4-J.Elliott 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 10 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (9:16) 3-J.Fox punts 46 yards to PHI 15, Center-49-H.Hatten. 87-X.Gipson MUFFS catch, touched at PHI 15, ball out of bounds at PHI 15.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (6:25) 10-B.Mann punts 48 yards to DET 15, Center-57-C.Adomitis, downed by PHI-28-W.Shipley.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 10 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:12) 3-J.Fox punts 38 yards to PHI 20, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 87-X.Gipson.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 71 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (3:00) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to PHI 29 for no gain (46-J.Campbell; 53-T.Nowaske).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 17 at the 36 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 62%

    (2:03) 39-J.Bates 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.