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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 57

Detroit Lions 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(11:22) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 15-G.Stuard. 15-G.Stuard up the middle to DET 43 for no gain (58-J.Hunt).

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.17 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 57, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 17, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model