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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 16

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(6:06) 4-J.Elliott 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.05 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 16, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP