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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 68

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(10:37) 10-B.Mann punts 40 yards to DET 28, Center-57-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.30 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 68, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 26, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model