4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 14 at the 57

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(12:28) 10-B.Mann punts 42 yards to DET 15, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 11-K.Raymond to DET 14 for -1 yards (57-C.Adomitis).

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.50 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 57, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 17, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model