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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 15 at the 52

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(3:09) 10-B.Mann punts 41 yards to DET 11, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 11-K.Raymond to DET 15 for 4 yards (57-C.Adomitis; 7-K.Ringo).

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.60 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 52, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.79 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 15, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model