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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 30

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(10:20) 4-J.Elliott 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.30 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.75 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 40, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP