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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 61

Detroit Lions 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 16

What Actually Happened

(9:16) 3-J.Fox punts 46 yards to PHI 15, Center-49-H.Hatten. 87-X.Gipson MUFFS catch, touched at PHI 15, ball out of bounds at PHI 15.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.59 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 61, worth -3.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 20, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model