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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 71

Philadelphia Eagles 16 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(3:00) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to PHI 29 for no gain (46-J.Campbell; 53-T.Nowaske).

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.12 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 71, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 29, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model