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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 9

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(9:47) 4-J.Elliott 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +2.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.58 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 9, worth +0.45 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP