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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 64

New York Giants 13 – Green Bay Packers 19

What Actually Happened

(9:34) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 26-D.Singletary. 26-D.Singletary left guard to NYG 38 for 2 yards (58-I.McDuffie; 95-D.Wyatt).

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.02 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 22, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model