Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- GB offense: +0.099 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
- QB edge to GB: Jameis Winston (NYG) -0.090 vs Jordan Love (GB) +0.166 EPA/dropback (NYG starting Jameis Winston in place of Jaxson Dart)
- NYG defense: +0.119 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
- Wind 17 mph
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 11
GB
NYG
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:40 TD NYG (10:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – NYG 6
- Q2 14:00 TD GB (14:00) 70-D.Kinnard reported in as eligible. 2-M.Willis pass short middle to 9-C.Watson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [0-B.Burns]. GB 6 – NYG 7
- Q2 07:43 TD GB (7:43) 23-E.Wilson right guard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 12 – NYG 7
- Q2 01:15 TD NYG (1:15) 94-E.Chatman reported in as eligible. 26-D.Singletary left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – NYG 13
- Q3 11:44 TD GB (11:44) 10-J.Love pass short right to 81-J.Whyle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 19 – NYG 13
- Q4 07:25 TD NYG (7:25) 19-J.Winston up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 19 – NYG 19
- Q4 04:07 TD GB (4:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 9-C.Watson for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 25 – NYG 20
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 GB 4th & 11 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 25%
(8:20) 19-D.Whelan punts 34 yards to NYG 15, Center-42-M.Orzech. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 15 for no gain (42-M.Orzech; 16-B.Melton).
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Q1 NYG 4th & 9 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(6:26) 12-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to GB 38, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-36-R.Payton.
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Q2 NYG 4th & 3 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56%
(12:37) 12-J.Gillan punts 44 yards to GB 26, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 87-R.Doubs to GB 39 for 13 yards (46-Z.Barnes). PENALTY on GB-55-K.Enagbare, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 26.
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Q2 GB 4th & 16 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(:25) 19-D.Whelan punts 40 yards to NYG 28, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.
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Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 64Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(9:34) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 26-D.Singletary. 26-D.Singletary left guard to NYG 38 for 2 yards (58-I.McDuffie; 95-D.Wyatt).
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Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 55Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54%
(7:24) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 89-I.Hodgins to GB 43 for 12 yards (25-K.Nixon) [1-M.Parsons].
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Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 10Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 97%
(2:02) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at GB 17 for -7 yards (sack split by 1-M.Parsons and 58-I.McDuffie).
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Q3 GB 4th & 2 at the 75Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EPp(convert) 66%
(:29) 19-D.Whelan punts 60 yards to NYG 15, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.
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Q4 NYG 4th & 2 at the 22Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57% p(FG) 88%
(9:02) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 89-I.Hodgins to GB 9 for 13 yards (25-K.Nixon).
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Q4 GB 4th & 9 at the 79 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(:21) 19-D.Whelan punts 61 yards to NYG 18, Center-42-M.Orzech. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 35 for 17 yards (42-M.Orzech).