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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 75

Green Bay Packers 19 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(:29) 19-D.Whelan punts 60 yards to NYG 15, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.91 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 75, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 32, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP