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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 22

New York Giants 13 – Green Bay Packers 19

What Actually Happened

(9:02) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 89-I.Hodgins to GB 9 for 13 yards (25-K.Nixon).

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.52 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model