Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 79

Green Bay Packers 27 – New York Giants 20

(:21) 19-D.Whelan punts 61 yards to NYG 18, Center-42-M.Orzech. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 35 for 17 yards (42-M.Orzech).

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.11 EP
58% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 79, worth -1.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model