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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 49

Green Bay Packers 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(8:20) 19-D.Whelan punts 34 yards to NYG 15, Center-42-M.Orzech. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 15 for no gain (42-M.Orzech; 16-B.Melton).

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.23 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.78 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model