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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 50

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(13:42) 6-T.Townsend punts 36 yards to TEN 14, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.62 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 50, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.57 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model