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Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
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TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Brian Callahan
Sunday 2025-11-16 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread -5.5 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

HOU
67.1%
TEN
32.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.180 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • TEN defense: +0.183 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to HOU: Cam Ward (TEN) -0.254 vs Davis Mills (HOU) -0.077 EPA/dropback
  • TEN on 7 more days rest than HOU
  • HOU defense: -0.140 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • HOU offense: +0.015 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 25
–
TEN 17
Projected margin: HOU by 8 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

HOU

Ka'imi Fairbairn K Out Quadricep
Harrison Bryant TE Out Neck
Damon Arnette CB Out Ankle
Jalen Pitre S Out Concussion
C.J. Stroud QB Out Concussion
Jakob Johnson FB Questionable Hamstring
Ed Ingram G Questionable Knee
Cade Stover TE Questionable Foot

TEN

Xavier Woods S Out Hamstring
Bryce Oliver WR Out Knee
Kalel Mullings RB Out Ankle
Arden Key LB Questionable Quadricep
Calvin Ridley WR Questionable Hamstring
Jeffery Simmons DT Questionable Hamstring
C.J. Ravenell DT Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 16
–
TEN 13

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:55 FG TEN (:55) 6-J.Slye 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker. HOU 0 – TEN 3
  • Q3 10:49 FG TEN (10:49) 6-J.Slye 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker. HOU 0 – TEN 6
  • Q3 07:25 TD HOU (7:25) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 12-N.Collins for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – TEN 6
  • Q3 01:36 FG HOU (1:36) 42-M.Wright 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 10 – TEN 6
  • Q4 12:03 FG HOU (12:03) 42-M.Wright 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 13 – TEN 6
  • Q4 01:40 TD TEN (1:40) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 11-V.Jefferson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 13 – TEN 12
  • Q4 00:02 FG HOU (:02) 42-M.Wright 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 16 – TEN 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%

    (8:24) 10-D.Mills sacked at TEN 12 for -11 yards (50-C.Barton).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 15 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 61%

    (:55) 6-J.Slye 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 30%

    (13:42) 6-T.Townsend punts 36 yards to TEN 14, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (10:00) 3-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to HOU 24, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 32 for 8 yards (21-M.Robinson). PENALTY on HOU-11-T.Smith, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 24.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 15 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 61%

    (2:59) 6-T.Townsend punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Touchback.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:56) 3-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to HOU 36, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-J.Noel to HOU 38 for 2 yards (30-K.Brooks).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (1:00) 6-T.Townsend punts 38 yards to TEN 17, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 17-C.Dike MUFFS catch, touched at TEN 23, recovered by TEN-33-C.Gray at TEN 21. TEN-17-C.Dike was injured during the play.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 9 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:20) 3-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to HOU 33, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-J.Noel to HOU 35 for 2 yards (30-K.Brooks).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 2 at the 28
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 82%

    (10:49) 6-J.Slye 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (6:01) 3-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to HOU 14, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 5 at the 23
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 89%

    (1:36) 42-M.Wright 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.50 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 87%

    (12:03) 42-M.Wright 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (10:38) 3-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to HOU 27, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 38 for 11 yards (88-D.Martin-Robinson).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (9:40) 6-T.Townsend punts 45 yards to TEN 11, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 12-M.Kinsey ran ob at TEN 12 for 1 yard.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 7 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (7:23) 3-J.Hekker punts 62 yards to HOU 23, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 46 for 23 yards (48-J.Bachie).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 12 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (5:05) 6-T.Townsend punts 51 yards to TEN 5, Center-40-A.Brinkman, out of bounds.