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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 79

Tennessee Titans 3 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 3-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to HOU 36, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-J.Noel to HOU 38 for 2 yards (30-K.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.41 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 79, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 36, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model