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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 28

Tennessee Titans 3 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:49) 6-J.Slye 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.42 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 28, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 38, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP