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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 63

Tennessee Titans 6 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(6:01) 3-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to HOU 14, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.10 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model