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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 25

Houston Texans 10 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(12:03) 42-M.Wright 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.24 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.50 EP