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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 81

Tennessee Titans 6 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(10:38) 3-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to HOU 27, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 38 for 11 yards (88-D.Martin-Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.46 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 81, worth -4.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 38, worth -1.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model