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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 56

Houston Texans 13 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(9:40) 6-T.Townsend punts 45 yards to TEN 11, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 12-M.Kinsey ran ob at TEN 12 for 1 yard.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.59 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 56, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 17, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP